2018 Draft: Bats Early, Bats Often

The  first day of the second draft with Hazen as the leader was quite similar to the that of the first. The team emphasized hitters, but they did not exclusively pick collegiate hitters as they did last year. Through the regime’s first six day one picks, they have yet to draft a pitcher, and the organization has not drafted an arm in the first or second round since Alex Young in 2015. Pitchers are risks in the first round (the highest-drafted hitters tend to reach the MLB more often and perform better overall than their pitching counterparts), a trend partially caused by their tendency to break. (It seems appropriate to mention now that Jon Duplantier has bicep tendinitis and will be sidelined for a short amount of time.) Their first pick was not a guy that was high on too many draft boards:

Matt McLain, INF, Beckham (CA) HS, UCLA Commit

With the 25th pick, the Dbacks turn to a prep infielder that they have been linked to several times heading into today. California is in the middle of a down year talent-wise, and McLain has risen towards the top of an uninspiring field. While McLain is small at 5’10”, he has put on as much muscle as he can, which prevents him from being docked too hard for his height. It is not surprising whatsoever that the Dbacks took McLain today; based on the Diamondbacks’ clear interest in him, a few sites correctly had McLain being picked by the Dbacks in this spot. However, there was a thought that McLain would be plucked by the Dbacks in a different, later pick, as the 25-spot seems to be a bit of a stretch.

McLain has solid bat-to-ball skills that allow his hit tool to grade out as at least average, and some scouts see it as above-average or plus. He is a plus runner, with speed being the best tool in his arsenal. He has shown an ability to hit for average power, but given his size, it is unlikely he produces more. As a shortstop, he has been a steady defender with impressive footwork and an above-average arm, but his actions have caused scouts to believe that he is best suited to move off the six in the future. His arm can play at third, but he has also passed the eye test in the outfield, where his plus speed should lead to good range to pair with his already plus arm.

As far as the other options on the board at the time, the bulk of the talent came in the form of pitchers. Shane McClanahan, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Kowar, and Ethan Hankins were all available if the Dbacks wanted them. These pitchers had the talent to go earlier in the draft, and McClanahan was well below the range of picks where he belonged, making it seem like he would be a wise pick for this position. It also seemed that McLain could have been taken with the Competitive Balance A pick later in the night. However, the team has more knowledge and information than what is available in the public sphere, and they clearly have seen something in McLain to like him as much as they do. Also, as much as McLain may have been able to fall to the CBA pick, the same can be said for Jake McCarthy and Steele Walker, other top options for the 25th spot. As a matter of fact, it was the former of those two whom the Dbacks selected with pick number thirty-nine.

UPDATE: Fangraphs says that they have heard McLain would not have been available at 39.

Jake McCarthy, OF, Virginia

McCarthy broke his wrist this spring after only thirteen games for Virginia, but he hit well in those thirteen games, slashing .314/.446/.412, and he performed well in the ACC tournament following the injury. He has a well-established track record, including impressive stints in wood-bat leagues that have allowed his draft position to stay afloat despite the injury. The pick is not that surprising, as the Diamondbacks’ scouts have seen plenty of McCarthy while he was playing alongside Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith last season.

McCarthy’s best tool is his wheels, which easily grades plus. This speed allows him to show off excellent range in the outfield, but his poor arm raises some minor questions about whether he could stick in center. Many are on the side that he should easily be able to stick, but this is something to watch for in future scouting reports. His hit tool will not likely be more than average, and he has a flat bat path that limits his power potential. The bat should be aplenty for center, but if he were forced to move to left, it may be on the lighter side.

McCarthy is a fairly safe pick to make at least some sort of impact in the big leagues. Before the draft, it would make sense for the team to draft McCarthy with the first pick and McLain with the second, but using this order, the team has a better shot of saving slot money for future picks. McLain may be willing to sign under-slot because he was often mocked much later in the draft, and McCarthy will not receive as much of the pool as he would if he were the first rounder. That money will be needed to help sign the second round pick.

Alek Thomas, OF, Mount Carmel (IL) HS, Texas Christian Commit

Thomas was a three-sport athlete at Mount Carmel, and he is committed to TCU for both baseball and football, where he plays Wide Receiver. Having the option to play both sports collegiality gives him an extra incentive not to sign with the Snakes and to head off to college, but if the Dbacks can indeed save money from the first two picks, they should be able to lure him away from Fort Worth. His athletic future is undoubtedly in baseball, where he hit .361 as the leadoff man for Team USA.

Thomas is a plus runner with an above-average hitting ability. He has the potential to be a plus hitter as well and has shown a knack for hitting elite fastballs. He is an inch short of six foot, and while that frame is not able to generate average power, his feel for barreling up the baseball should allow some home runs to come. His speed plays well in the grass, where his glove and range are above-average. However, these skills will not be used to their full potential because Thomas’s arm is weak, forcing him to play LF as a professional.

As long as the Dbacks are able to ink Thomas, they should be able to get a steal for a pick late in the second round. Thomas is a gifted athlete, but teams were scared by the higher difficulty of signing the Illinois product. Among the three bats selected, all three own plus speed. The front office may have identified this as an area that the industry is not properly valuing, or this could have just occurred by chance, where the best player on the Diamondbacks’ board for each pick was fast. This certainly wasn’t a trend last year, but we will see if this continues tomorrow and in future drafts.

Day Two will likely see the team draft an arm or two in the third through fifth rounds as the team did last year, but predicting who those picks will be is like playing darts in a hurricane. Last year, the team went with a pair of prep arms in Tabor and Harrison, and this could be a strategy to acquire high-ceiling pitching prospects without taking the risk of drafting an arm early. That strategy will be what the system needs in the long-run if the Ladnier and Hazen continue to prioritize the hitters on the Mondays of future drafts.

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