The Closing Window and Manny Machado

This could be it.

Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock could walk away at the end of the season, qualifying offers in the their back pockets, and the Dbacks’ competitive window may slam shut as quickly as it opened. Sure, there are other possibilities. Hazen and Co. could find worthy replacements in a monster free agent class, or they could resign one of the departing snakes. But the blow of potentially losing two of the team’s better players, one from each side of the ball, may be one from which the Dbacks will not recover. The two players were important in last year’s playoff run, and they have played vital roles in this year’s run. They won’t be easy to replace.

In addition, the team may run out of cash to replace them with. As the core of this team ages, the salary will continue to rise, and the amount of money available for free agent acquisitions may be limited. The 2018 payroll is sitting at approximately 132 Million, easily a club record, and Baseball-Reference expects that to grow to 139 before even signing free agents in the offseason. Some money could be cleared out of the way, but for either Pollock or Corbin to resign with the team, the club would be forced to run a payroll north of 160 Million, unless Greinke is traded. Attendance is up, the highest its been since 2012, and ownership, to their credit, has shown more willingness to spend than we have ever seen from them before, but I just can’t pull myself into thinking that the team would, or perhaps even could, run a payroll that high. Financially, remaining competitive seems impossible.

So, if this is it, then what is next? There is still the playoff run, and that should be the team’s biggest priority. After that, Hazen will be in a very similar situation to that of when he was brought on, but this time, he may be forced to tear down. He could give this team a shot to compete next year, but it will take some magic for that to become a reality. If he can’t field a competitive team, he will have delayed the inevitable and put the franchise in a happier position to begin a rebuild, at the very least.

However, with a likely gloomy future looming ahead, the team is in the midst of a playoff run that will need reinforcements. These will come naturally, to an extent, as A.J. Pollock, Steven Souza Jr., and Randall Delgado are preparing to join the team, and Robbie Ray and Shelby Miller have both made their first starts back from lengthy injuries. But we aren’t the only ones gaining talent right around now; the Dodgers rotation just became fully armed and loaded, and the only major name remaining on their disabled list is Corey Seager, who is out for the year. If the Dbacks want to protect their three-and-a-half game lead over the division, then they will need more than the returning in-house options. And that brings us to Manny Machado:

The rumor certainly doesn’t mean that anything is going to happen; every competitive team and even the Padres are linked to Machado. And of course, the Dodgers are the front-runner for the Machado sweepstakes. It goes without saying that Machado is a star, and he would significantly improve any team’s roster if they were willing to find a way for it to work.

In Arizona, that way is not hard to find. Machado would play short against lefties and third against righties, forming platoons with both Ahmed and Lamb, and hitting in the heart of a Diamondback’s order. The offense, currently a middle-tier group, would elevate to a top-third group in the league. The Dbacks would become the clear favorites to win the division.

The only real obstacle is the return that the Orioles would seek. Even though J.D. Martinez and Manny Machado have been similar value-wise recently, Machado will likely cost more than Martinez did. There is more demand for Machado, and whoever lands him will not pay a cheap price; the Orioles are reportedly seeking a controllable starting pitcher and a “replacement” for Machado. The former could be solved by one of Duplantier, Widener, or Clarke, and if Hazen does swing the trade, this would be the starting point. The latter requirement doesn’t necessarily have to be met, but the most likely option would be Domingo Leyba, even though he is not a perfect match for the role. If they go without the Machado replacement, a low-minors mid-level prospect like Gabriel Maciel, Eduardo Diaz, or Jhoan Duran could round out the package. One throw-in later (because “three prospects” sounds better than “two prospects”) and Manny Machado could be a Diamondback.

Is that cost worth a little less than half a season of Machado? In these circumstances, it is. It seems foolish to get attatched for an already unappealing future when our best shot at winning a World Series is right now. It will be harder to win rings without A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin, or with the team’s future financial situation, or when the remaining core of this team starts to age. Now is our best opportunity to win the Series. Throughout the season, we have been constantly reminded that this is the 20th anniversary season for our beloved team, and if those twenty years taught us anything, it is that teams this good are hard to come by. When the Dbacks jump into the pool this September, it will only be the second time that the franchise has made it to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. It would be a shame for us to look back on this window and realize that we were one guy away from our dreams.

Losing prospects can hurt. Diamondback fans know that better than anybody. But this team has a chance to take home the number one seed in the National League, and we may not have the opportunity again until the 40th anniversary. I’ve never heard anybody criticize the moves that brought the hardware home in 2001. To get there, you have to take a risk or two. 2018 is our best shot; let’s go win.

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