Dbacks Add Escobar to Fuel Stretch Run

Dbacks acquire INF Eduardo Escobar from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for RHP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel, and OF Ernie de la Trinidad.

After a 2016 that saw him lose his starting position a month into the season, Escobar proved himself to be a worthy third baseman in 2017, slashing .254/.309/.449, good for a wRC+ of 96, while filling in for the Miguel Sano injury and finding his playing time wherever he could. Despite the breakout year, Sano was blocked behind Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano for playing time in Minnesota entering March. But, as seems to be the theme for this year’s Twins, things did not go as planned. At the end of Spring Training, Jorge Polanco, the incumbent shortstop, was suspended half the season for PEDs, and Escobar found himself with a starting job. After a month at short, with defensive metrics that are not for the faint of heart, Miguel Sano was injured, and Escobar shifted to the hot corner.

With Polanco suspended, and both Sano and Buxton struggling with ineffectiveness and injury, Escobar has shined. He took another step forward this year, raising his slash line to .274/.338/.514, good for a 30% improvement in production over the previous season. He continued his four year trend of raising his launch angle, pushing it up another 1.6°, and more importantly, he has simply been hitting the ball harder; his hard hit percentage has risen from 31.4% to 38.9% over the past season. Most of the improvements to the hard hit percentages come when Escobar hits the ball in the air, and these basic changes have influenced the rest of the profile.

As you may have expected with the increase launch angle, the strikeouts are up, almost three percent at 22.3%, but Escobar, a hitter known for his sub-par ability to control the strike zone, has combined that with an uptick in his walk rate from 6.6% to 8.3%. The increased levels of hard contact have raised his BABIP to .325 and his ISO to .239, both of which should be sustainable if the current batted ball profile sticks. To date, he would be the second-best hitter on the Dbacks, behind only Paul Goldschmidt. By almost any stat you look at, Escobar has made important improvements this season.

Unless you look at the defensive stats, that is. UZR, which saw Escobar in a positive light defensively at short in 2017, was far less optimistic on him this go-around, with the corresponding rate stat (UZR/150) plummeting from 4.7 to -23.3, a drop supported by his DRS and FRAA metrics. If that only looks like a whole lot of acronyms to you, I’ll clarify: his defense at short was bad enough that the Twins moved him off the position a month into the season. However, he is certainly capable of handling third and, more or less, second base. With Jake Lamb injured, the team will run him out there at third every day, but once Lamb returns, the most logical solution would be to move Escobar to second base against righties and third against lefties, forming a platoon with Lamb, and to an extent, Ahmed.

The trade sends a clear, all-caps message to the rest of the league that the Dbacks are here to compete, as expected. It ensures that the team will not suffer from the Lamb injury, and once he is healthy, it improves the everyday offense while also providing at least one potentially potent bat off the bench to be leveraged for the stretch run. It allows Lovullo to use the platoon advantages of Escobar’s switch-hitting abilities to better tailor lineups to the pitcher. Rather than the big, flashy production of J.D. Martinez, Hazen has decided to keep his top prospects while improving two spots in the lineup. While the competitive window is closing fast, the front office is ensuring it will be as competitive as possible.

And now for the cost. Through the three midseason trades completed, the Dbacks are yet to give up a top-10 prospect, but Gabriel Maciel is the closest they have come so far. The Brazilian switch-hitter makes good contact with an advanced approach at the plate, and he uses his double-plus speed well on the basepaths and in the outfield. He should be able to stick in center, although there are certainly better defenders in the world. He’s still raw at 19 years of age, and the power hasn’t grown in yet. While he could establish himself as a everyday outfielder in four years or so, he also has a decent chance of falling short of that projection. Likewise, Jhoan Duran is another high-risk, high-reward prospect. He has an electric upper-90s fastball and some feel for secondaries, but the command and control have limited him thus far. If the Twins can fix those issues, they will have a nice prize on their hands; otherwise, they will have to settle for either a reliever or a bust. The development of these two players will determine how favorable the trade will prove itself to be, but, balancing the risk and reward of the prospects, the haul seems to be a fair price.

 

 

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