Dbacks acquire RHP Luke Weaver, C Carson Kelly, INF Andy Young, and 2019 CBB Draft Pick from the Cardinals in exchange for Paul Goldschmidt

In the last article, I wrote about the Goldschmidt Trade entirely from the viewpoint of what the Dbacks gave away, what that meant, and the end of the era. I intentionally ignored the return because the face of the franchise leaving is too large of a deal to not get its own spotlight. But the end of the Goldy Era has fostered the beginning of the next era, whatever that may look like, so now, I am going to look at the trade entirely from the opposite perspective: what we gained, what that means, and the birth of an era.

It’s been wild ride for Weaver over the past couple of years. Before the 2017 season, he was ranked as the 7th best  prospect in the Cardinals organization on account of “an easy plus change,” but he lacked a third pitch that could keep him in a major-league rotation. He broke out to a 3.88/2.93/3.19 ERA/xFIP/DRA line in ten games started that season, but in 2018, in fifteen more starts, he was less valuable, as his DRA rose to 4.62, about three percent below-average. His strikeout rate fell 8.7%, his walk rate rose 2.1%, and he still is searching for that ever-so-important third pitch. 

This search lead Weaver in many different directions throughout the season. At the beginning of the season, the Cardinals and Weaver seemed to believe that the curve was the best option available, and he used the curve a career-high 17.05% of the time in April. However, as the calendar flipped to May, Weaver began mixing in his cutter more often, and he hurled one of his best stretches this season. However, he reversed the strategy in June, throwing the cutter around ten percent less often than in May, and after June, he threw the cutter only twice. Here is his pitch mix for every game, excluding his best pitch the change, which remained relatively constant throughout the season:

We don’t know what caused the Cardinals to have Weaver stop throwing the cutter. Perhaps he wasn’t fully comfortable with it, or there was a minor health issue they believe was caused by the cutter, or they found some piece of information that dissuaded them from using it, but looking at the results of the cutter compared to the curve, it’s puzzling as to why they would ditch the effort after only one month. 

While Weaver’s curve (in red) unsurprisingly drew whiffs more often than his cutter (in yellow) did, the cutter induced a higher percentage of ground balls and was not hit for a fly ball or an extra base, particularly important for a change up reliant pitcher who will allow his fair share of home runs.

This doesn’t mean that Weaver has to completely abandon the curve (or even should), but the solution could come in sparingly using each, with the hopes that combined they make up for the lack of the true third pitch. The key is to find either a combination or sole pitch that is able to complements the stars of the show—the fastball and change—and stay primarily in the background. If Weaver is going to succeed as a starter, it’s going to be on the back of the fastball-change up combination.

There will be a lot of learning for Weaver over the coming years, and he is going to be doing most of it with his trademate from St. Louis who will be catching him for years to come. Carson Kelly has been one of the Cards top prospects in the recent years with Baseball America writing that he should reach “double-digit home runs” and grades out as a “above-average defender with a plus arm.” However, Kelly wasn’t able translate his pop (he slugged his batting average in fourty-two plate appearances this season) or his defense prowess (BP’s fielding runs above average graded him out as 0.9 runs below average) into major-league success this season.

However, Kelly has faced more challenges than most top prospects have to as they enter the bigs. Primarily, he hasn’t gotten to play because the Cardinals already have a catcher they seem quite fond of. 131 scattered plate appearances is not nearly enough to judge a hitter reliably, and it’s not unreasonable to hope that he hits better when he gets more regular at-bats in Arizona. The same holds true for his defense, where Kelly will also get the advantage of developing under management that already has a strong track record of turning poor defensive catchers, whom he is already better than, into good ones.

Weaver and Kelly both had frustrating seasons. Weaver wasn’t able to continue his 2017 pace or break out like many thought he could, and Kelly was unable to establish himself as Yadier Molina’s understudy. But they are young. The developmental process doesn’t just end when a player loses his prospect eligibility; it continues on for that player’s entire career and is especially active shortly after he is called up. That’s what the Diamondbacks are betting on here: that they can develop Weaver or Kelly into something more than they are right now and unleash the potential that scouts and fans alike have seen in the pair. And if they can’t, we still get two major-league baseball players for the next half-decade, which is worth far more than it may seem.

Andy Young was a 37th round pick back in 2016, but he has hit his way past Double-A. He has at least average power and should be a major-league player on account of it, but where he will play is still in question. He currently profiles as a second baseman, but he doesn’t have the range or agility to stick there in the bigs. Third and left are both options, but regardless of where he ends up, his role will be to hit.

The draft pick can seem like a throw-in because there is no name attached to it yet, but it could end up as the most important aspect of the trade. The CBB round has produced some of the Dbacks best prospects in recent years, including Marcus Wilson, Isan Diaz, and Daulton Varsho. Now, the Dbacks will get seven draft picks Day One, the most since 2009 when they selected Pollock and Goldschmidt. Ten years after that draft, the players that were chosen have supplied picks for the next Diamondback mega-draft. If it’s anywhere near as successful as the 2009 one, the future will be bright in the desert.

Overall, it’s a safe return. It guarantees eleven years of a MLB-quality players instead of taking one high-potential prospect and some change to go with it. Hazen clearly wants to get back to winning quickly and then supplement the squad with the bevy of prospects coming in from recent and upcoming drafts. Overtaking the Dodgers and the soon-to-be-good Padres is going to be a tough task for a team without a top-end farm system, but this trade brings the team closer to a new competitive window. It’s the start of something; we just don’t know what that something may be.