This is not a prospect list. If you want a Diamondbacks’ prospect list, feel free to click here. Or here. Or here or here or here. The point is, there are a lot of prospect lists, and me making one wouldn’t add much to what already exists. Besides, I’ve only seen a handful of the Dbacks top prospects play myself, which makes it difficult to compare players. So, I will leave the prospect listing to others and instead present this minor league preview, which I believe will be more entertaining for both you to read and me to write. With that, let’s begin:
The State of the Farm
Thanks in part to a front office that has held most of the farm together, the system has naturally begun working its way back towards to top of the league. Without international restrictions, the Dbacks have succeeded recently in the international markets, with the team particularly thriving in the Bahamas. In the states, the team’s lower-level depth is beginning to graduate to the upper-minors, bringing long-awaited MLB graduations to the doorstep. While they have continued to struggle with the last two first-round draft picks, a heavy 2019 draft should bring this farm close to the top of the league, an incredible accomplishment for Mike Hazen.
The Young, High-Upside International Guys
The game is leaning more and more on international markets, particularly those in the Caribbean, for its supply of talent. Without the extensive influence of basketball and football, baseball is able to lure in a large portion of the best athletes in several foreign countries. As a result, some of the most exciting prospects in the game—and in the Dbacks system—have been signed internationally, which brings us to Kristian Robinson, the best pure athlete in the system. He’s an absolute beast with a plus arm, plus power projection, and a solid chance to stick in center. Some believe he’s on his path to becoming the best prospect in baseball, although its really too early to guess, and others dream on years of All-Star production. The only issue so far is his swing-and-miss, but he just turned eighteen, so he’s got plenty of time. With his age comes the chance that things go wrong, and if the consistent All-Star projections are on the high-end of the spectrum, the other end is a corner outfielder who can’t make contact enough to consistently tap into his power. But he’s only eighteen; let’s just dream for now.
In a few years, the outlook of Robinson could be similar to that of Jazz Chisholm. He, like Kristian, is an incredible athlete that can dazzle and shine at any given moment. At the six, he uses his athleticism incredibly well to reach grounders that you wouldn’t expect him to, and his arm should be strong enough to let him stick. He has impressive natural power, and while he occasionally tries too hard to hit it out, the power combined with his defense should carry him to the bigs. Chisholm is three years older than Robinson, and with those years comes increased attention to his flaws. Jazz swings hard on every pitch and often comes up empty, an issue which could cause a setback as he moves on to the advanced arms of Double-A. Additionally, while talent-wise Jazz is a shortstop, he often loses focus and allows a routine play to turn into an error. While his ceiling isn’t nearly as high as that of Robinson, his age, development, and track record give him the higher floor.
Flying into the picture this year was Geraldo Perdomo. The nineteen-year-old is an athletic shortstop with an advanced feel to hit. He’s quick in the field and should be able to stick at short but could easily handle second if he needs to. His body still has some development time to go, and with that should come average power. With all three of these guys, it’s going to require some patience. Chisolm may struggle to adjust to the arms of the Southern League; Robinson could hit an unexpected speed bump somewhere along the way; Perdomo may take time to gain the extra weight he needs to hit for power. That’s okay though because they’re young. Most players eighteen and nineteen aren’t getting their first taste of full-season ball, and only the best twenty-one-year-olds are making their final sets of adjustments for the majors. So when one of them struggles, relax, and remember what you were doing at eighteen.
High-Minors Starting Pitchers
If you don’t want to wait for the best hitters in the system, then you should turn your attention to the pitchers. A trio of prospects will start the year in Triple-A, awaiting their chance to impact the big-league club. Duplantier and his strong four-pitch mix—all of which are league-average or better—highlights the group. He’s rolled through the minors with little setbacks from opposing hitter but large roadblocks from his own body. His Rice diploma makes these concerns hard to overlook, and it’s likely that his success in the majors will be in between trips to the D… er, IL. He’s more or less ready now though, and after a touch of refinement and service time manipulation in Reno, Dbacks’ fans will get one of their first exciting graduations in years.
Widener and Clarke are less certain to be as good as Duplantier is expected to be, but more likely to stay healthy. Widener has a strong three-pitch mix thanks to the development of a power change to replace a more traditional change that left scouts believing he was destined to return to his old home in the bullpen. This is certainly still a possibility—his arm action isn’t quite ideal for a starter’s role—but Widener’s ensured that he will have a major-league role soon. For Clarke, he’s been waiting for that role for a long time. He finished Double-A halfway through the 2017 season and has been toiling away in the hitter’s paradise of Greater Nevada Field ever since. Eventually he will get his call, but he’s now being passed by the younger pitchers, and he may never get the chance to be a full-time starter. He still has three options, but he’ll likely leave Reno soon to fill in for injuries and bide the rest of his time in long relief.
Mike Hazen Draftees
Two-years in and Hazen’s draft picks are making their way towards the majors. Daulton Varsho will likely be the first one there. He’s continued to rake with his beautiful, short lefty swing and provided some pop to go with it. His defense is the biggest question, but more and more scouts are leaning towards keeping him behind the dish, and with the Dbacks’s organizational success at teaching catchers defense, I’m optimistic that he can stay there. His bat will easily hold if he stays, but even if he moves out to left, second, or first (he’s athletic, and not just for a catcher), it has the chance of being enough. Drafted shortly before him, Drew Ellis has continued to bash baseballs in stereotypical slugger form. He keeps the ball in the air and takes extra-base hits by the dozen, but he may not be able to make contact enough to tap into the power consistently at higher levels. Both hitters are expected to head to the Southern League, a test that will be particularly telling for Ellis.
Despite being unable to sign Matt McLain, this year’s draft squad remains exciting. A two-sport athlete and bloodlines guy, Alek Thomas is one of the better athletes in the system, which should allow him to stick in center. He has a quick bat and finds barrels consistently although the power is capped by his relatively flat swing at present. Like the international group of hitters, his youth and lack of polish make him far more likely to bust or hit a speed bump, but for now, we can dream on his potential. The other center fielder, Jake McCarthy, isn’t as exciting as Thomas but just as good of a prospect and more likely to at least make it the bigs. He has the contact-oriented swing and approach that is so beloved at Virginia, meaning he also struggles to hit for power, but he’s has an advanced hit tool and a potentially plus glove in center field. To somewhat cancel out the McLain whiff, the Dbacks were able to draw in Blaze Alexander from IMG Academy in the eleventh round. His arm is even better than his name, and with the possibility of developing power and sticking at short, he has the highest upside from the draft. On the other hand, he’ll need to work out some kinks in the hit tool, which is far harder than it sounds, and he may end up at third rather than short long-term. Regardless, Hazen has done an excellent job finding talent past the first-round, and the recent picks should keep the farm stocked for the near future.
I suppose I have to talk about the first round now. I mean, you can’t talk about Hazen’s draft picks without noting that the first round hasn’t gone as planned. Pavin Smith is still a prospect, but that designation could be gone in a year’s time. When he was drafted, I would be far more surprised if you told me he was going to fizzle out (without much fizzle left) in Double-A than if you told me he would be roughly average MLB starter with a few All-Star seasons mixed in. Now, it’s the other way around. The irony of the whole scenario is that he was supposed to be a “safe pick.” Lesson learned: there’s no such thing as a safe pick, only some picks that are safer than others. The power isn’t enough yet, and he hasn’t hit like he was supposed to. He still has the chance to turn things around, but right now he looks at best like a bench first baseman, a species going extinct with the rise of the super-utility men. The best hope is that it was once in there, so it technically should still be in there somewhere.
How Smith’s disappointment and McLain’s decision to attend college paint the picture of Hazen’s first two years is another story. Other than the first round, Hazen’s front office has done an excellent job drafting, but that’s admittedly akin to saying “Other than failing his most important class, he’s been a great student.” It should be noted that just because the result of the first-round picks hasn’t been ideal, that doesn’t necessarily mean the process has suffered the same fate. Pavin was universally held as a top-10 pick (although most though he would more nine or ten than seven or eight) and was expected to hit. It’s not like the Dbacks were severely wrong about his prospect status at the time. For McLain, he was expected to sign, and I’m sure the Dbacks were confident that he would sign, especially considering where they drafted him. But with every prospect, there is going to be variance, and sometimes you are going to end up on the wrong side of the most likely scenario, regardless of what you do. This isn’t supposed to be a “Get Out of Jail Free Card” for Hazen and the staff; if early picks continue to go south, it will certainly be held strongly against him. However, Hazen’s legacy as a drafter will be far more influenced by this upcoming draft, with its seven day-one picks, than the drafts of the past two seasons.
Relievers Knocking on the Door and Out of Option Players
Putting relievers on a prospect list is risky because they are not only volatile but also unlikely to make a major impact in the majors. The best relievers in the majors tend to have been starters in the minors who then are converted to relief when things go south. But this isn’t a prospect list, and the Dbacks still have a considerable number of upper-lever relief arms who should make a difference this year. Yoan Lopez wasn’t able to stay in a starting role after struggling to complete the toughest transition any prospect is acted to complete: moving from Cuba to the US, but after the difficulties he has been able to reassert himself into a high-energy reliever that fans are once again excited for. Next to him in the Reno pen is Jimmie Sherfy, who will likely finally seal a role in the major-league bullpen (although that’s also what I said about him last season). Both of these players are blocked in a way because the Dbacks projected bullpen is filled with players who are out of options, and not wanting to forfeit useful pieces, the team will likely keep Lopez and Sherfy in the minors until they are needed.
That list of out-of-option players includes Silvino Bracho, once hailed as a future relief ace, but now seen as a middle relief option. After a season of posting a 3.19 ERA in between trips back to Reno, it’s unlikely that the team will part ways with him any time soon. The more difficult decisions come from the position players. Christian Walker has been one of the best players in the PCL over the past two seasons, but he was blocked by some guy named Paul Goldschmidt. Hazen “fixed” that issue, but Walker still may not make the majors. The organization clearly values him as a hitter (he was on the playoff roster in 2017), but his bat hasn’t proved to be enough to secure a role. He’s trying to become more versatile by learning a corner outfield position and would be a logical option to platoon with Lamb at first. Regardless of his fate, one has to feel for him because his last two seasons have ended by a hit-by-pitch to the face. Socrates Brito is also fighting for one of the last spots on the bench. The team technically already has four outfielders ahead of him, but Marte will be spending some time on the dirt as well, and if the Marte experiment fails, the team would want Brito around. However, he hasn’t hit enough in the past years to secure a job, and he might not this year either.
Other Notables
Some players don’t fall into easy categories, so before I move on to some lesser known prospects, I’ll talk about them, starting with Andy Yerzy. I’ve been very skeptical of Yerzy in the past, but his 2018 season has warmed me up to him a little. I still doubt that he’ll be a catcher long-term, but his bat is getting to the point where I can picture a major-league role at other positions more easily. It’ll be a while, but for now Yerzy will keep on chugging. Speaking of slow developments, Matt Tabor still has the ceiling of a starter, but it will likely take the twenty-year-old some time before he can put it together and become a more legitimate prospect.
Andy Young was the throw-in to the Goldschmidt trade, but he’s more appealing than most throw-ins. He’s a power-hitting middle infielder (although he also plays third) that has hit his way past projections and will play a role on the big league squad soon.
Domingo Leyba has recovered from his shoulder surgery and came back to be exactly who we thought he was: a contact-driven second baseman. He finished Double-A and will be heading for the majors soon, but unless his hit tool shines, he’s likely no more than a bench bat.
Oh yes, Marcus Wilson. He was supposed to one of the guys we were jumping up and down over by this point, but the California League hit him harder than expected. He still has the tools to play center, but the power still isn’t there, and more question marks have popped up. He’s only twenty-two, and a good year would send him flying back up prospect lists. Standing on the other escalator, Emilio Vargas was hardly known before the season, but his low-90s fastball and above-average slider dominated Single-A hitting, allowing him to enter the prospect ranks. His battery mate, Dominic Miroglio, also surprised this season. He was drafted in the twentieth round on account of his defense behind the dish, but after a productive offensive season in Visalia, it’s possible his bat will be good enough to reach the majors.
More International Guys
The first list of international hitters have firmly established themselves stateside, but another group is still making their way towards consistently playing in the U.S. Alvin Guzman was the top signing from this year’s class, coming in at 1.85 Million from the Dominican-Republic. His athleticism is ahead of his baseball ability at present, but he should be an excellent defender in center with the potential to hit for power. Unlike Robinson, who was from the Bahamas rather than the Dominican and less raw than Guzman, I would expect him to start the year in the D-R, but the Dbacks were aggressive with Robinson, so it’s possible he starts the year stateside. Jorge Barrosa, the other prospect from Robinson’s 2017 class, did finish the year in the states, and he projects as a high-contact, no-power outfielder. While that profile isn’t that common anymore, Barrosa had one of the best hit tools in the class, and with his age, it’s certainly possible he grows into more. Back to the 2018 class, Venezuelan Abraham Calzadilla is the best international pitcher the Dbacks have signed under Hazen. While I’m leery about any sixteen-year-old pitcher, he has the potential for a true three-pitch mix that could develop into a starter’s profile, and he’s less prone to young-person issues (command, lack of a third pitch) than most pitchers his age.
Fifth Rounders
The human mind likes the number five because it’s halfway to ten and easy to count by. I also like the number five, probably too much. It’s not the only reason why I like these players, but it’s certainly a large influence considering I don’t like fourth rounders nearly as much. Take Buddy Kennedy as an example. He had a 123 wRC+ in Missoula this year, so yes, there are statistical reasons to like him (although scouts don’t laud him much). But more so, he was a fifth rounder who went to Mike Trout’s high school and trained with Mike Trout. Or this year’s fifth round pick, Matt Mercer. He pitched well in Hillsboro, but there are also some epic videos of him throwing in the Driveline gym:
And he’s a fifth rounder. Sure, it doesn’t make sense to like a prospect because of a number or who he’s trained with, but that’s part of the fun of following prospects. Just know that sooner or later, that prospect you love is gonna break your heart.
Roof and Panels Open 